Promoting Justice and Rule of Law for Lasting Peace Ethiopia

Ethiopian Renaissance Master Plan (ERMP) From United For Justice: UFJ By Mesfin H. Berhanu Background Since 1966 E. C. (1974), Ethiopia has undergone radical political transformations, marked by the dominance of strong centralized power structures following the end of the Emperor Haile Selassie long rule. The initial period saw the rise of the Derg, a military junta led for much of its existence by Lieutenant Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam. This regime, rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideology, implemented sweeping nationalizations but was also characterized by brutal authoritarianism, including the "Red Terror," and protracted civil conflicts, notably the EPLF war for Eritrean independence and the rise of insurgent groups like the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). The military's role was not merely in governance but as the ruling body itself, blurring the lines between the armed forces and the state. The overthrow of the Derg in 1983 E. C. (1991) brought the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition to power, dominated by the TPLF under the leadership of Meles Zenawi. EPRDF was a coalition of four main political parties: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). This era introduced an ethnic federalist system and pursued a developmental state model. While it ushered in a period of relative stability and economic growth after years of war, it was also criticized for its centralized control, lack of political space for opposition, and the TPLF's pervasive influence in the state and military. The military remained a powerful institution, often seen as the guarantor of the ruling party's authority, and the country was engaged in a border war with Eritrea from 1990 –1992 E. C. (1998 to 2000). Following the contested 1997 E. C. (2005) election, the government of Meles Zenawi asserted control over Ethiopia's security forces and implemented a severe crackdown on the opposition and civilians. In Addis Ababa and elsewhere, security forces used lethal force against protesters demonstrating against alleged election fraud, resulting in numerous deaths and injuries. This period also saw the mass arrest and detention of hundreds of thousands opposition members, activists, and civilians. 2 The transition that led to Colonel Abiy Ahmed becoming prime minister in 2011 E. C. (2018) brought hopes for democratic reform, increased political freedoms, and national reconciliation. Colonel Abiy, from the Oromo ethnic group and leading the Prosperity Party (formed from the dismantling of the EPRDF), initially took steps to open the political landscape and made peace with Eritrea. However, his premiership has also been marked by a resurgence of internal conflicts, most significantly the devastating war in the Tigray region and escalating ethnic and political violence in Amhara and Oromo regions and elsewhere. While not a military junta, the government has relied heavily on military force to address these conflicts, highlighting the continued centrality of the military in the nation's affairs. The history of Ethiopia since 1966 E. C. (1974) underscores the persistent challenges of establishing an inclusive and fully civilian-led democratic state. The entanglement of military power with political authority under the Derg and the significant influence of the military within the EPRDF framework, followed by the prominent role of the military in the conflicts under the current administration, demonstrate a recurring pattern. While the Ethiopian constitution nominally provides for a secular state, the influence of religious identity has also played a role in political and social dynamics, sometimes intersecting with ethnic tensions. Moving forward, a crucial element for fostering a stable, inclusive, and civil government in Ethiopia lies in constitutional reform that explicitly and effectively limits the involvement of the military and religious institutions in state administration and political power. Such reforms would aim to firmly establish the principle of civilian rule, ensure the neutrality of the armed forces, and guarantee the secular nature of the government, thereby creating a more level playing field for political participation and reducing the potential for the military or religious bodies to dominate or unduly influence the political landscape. Implementing strong constitutional safeguards to separate military and religious authority from civilian governance is seen by many as a vital step towards building a more democratic, peaceful, and inclusive future for all Ethiopians, breaking the cycle of conflict and authoritarianism that has marked the nation's recent history.